IBM’s computer named “Watson” has beaten Jeopardy! (human) contestants in a series of games this month. IBM has a long history of innovations (watch this other 100th anniversary documentary featuring Greg Chaitin and Benoit Mandelbrot, among others here).
Not everybody was impressed by Watson though, according to Gavin C. Schmitt who interviewed Noam Chomsky, the recognized linguist:
- Noam Chomsky: I’m not impressed by a bigger steamroller.
- Interviewer: I assume that “a bigger steamroller” is a reference to Deep Blue. Watson understands spoken language and adapts its knowledge based on human interaction. What level of AI would be required to impress you?
- Noam Chomsky: Watson understands nothing. It’s a bigger steamroller. Actually, I work in AI, and a lot of what is done impresses me, but not these devices to sell computers.
In some sense, I understand Chomsky’s view and he does well pointing out what may seem the clearest difference between Watson and a human being, but the point may be much more subtle and deeper. Wolfram’s Principle of Computational Equivalence (PCE) (see this previous post) may shed some light on this subject. According to this principle, memory is what makes a system intelligent, because basically any system that does not behave in an obviously trivial fashion will likely be as sophisticated as the most sophisticated system. So what is the difference between a system that is potentially intelligent and one that shows signs of actually being so? It is somehow a matter of scale in several directions. Take the example of weather. When Wolfram is asked whether clouds are intelligent according to his principle, his short answer is yes. Every time humans want to make a prediction about whether it will rain, it turns out to be incredibly difficult to do so for more than a couple of days, and often the weather forecast is wrong even for the next day. How is it that weather prediction is so hard despite our long experience at weather forecasting? Well, clouds are computing themselves, and as part of weather they are quite complex, as complex as systems like the human brain, says PCE.
(Picture of Gregory Chaitin taken by Hector Zenil outside of the IBM’s
Thomas J. Watson Research Lab at Yorktown, N.Y. where Watson was designed)
After all these years, IBM hasn’t come up with a theoretical breakthrough to meet the challenge but rather with a supercomputer fast enough to beat the other participants. Watson uses fairly sophisticated algorithms, but these aren’t that much more sophisticated than those used by search engines, which proceed by matching pieces of text and retrieving other pieces of text statistically related to the original. The IBM team has come up with a super-computer to challenge the Jeopardy! participants and not with a new algorithm. The main goal of machine learning labs is usually to perform about 1% to 3% better than the best benchmark of the top lab in a particular area (e.g. word tagging, word disambiguation, information retrieval, etc.). If Watson has achieved anything like a breakthrough, it may be credited with having advanced the current state of AI research. It takes Google’s kind of technology a couple steps further by having drawn together several technologies on steroids. The point is that one may not need to come up with the smartest algorithm– because one may not be able to, simply because it doesn’t make sense to engineer a super complicated algorithm to reach intelligence, it being more appropriate to start from a simple but potentially powerful system, and then extract the best of it by running it on a super large corpus of data on a super fast computer. The Watson- in-Jeopardy! experience tells us that even clouds may look intelligent when running on a supercomputer.
Watson confirms what I’d suspected, that we’re not that special after all (in this sense). Watson meets the challenge of beating a human on its own turf and at what it does best basically through the use of brute force. Achieving artificial intelligence (AI) is not, as I suspected (among other thinkers), a matter of science breakthrough but rather a matter of scale and technological achievement. Over time we’ll have faster and faster computers, and that means computers with intelligence resembling ours (of course there are other subtle issues here, such as the fact that the system should be allowed to interact with the intelligent forms it is meant to interact with, otherwise its intelligence may prove alien to ours, and look as strange as that of clouds).
(Jean Michel Jarré with his electronic harp.
Picture by Hector Zenil, Paris concert 2010)
Wired published (when they used to publish interesting articles more often) an interesting article back in 2009, which reached the conclusion that one could exchange data for models: The End of Theory: The Data Deluge Makes the Scientific Method Obsolete.
Some interesting inferences can be drawn from this milestone where IBM supercomputers have beaten humans at human tasks (remember this is the second time; at least with such a publicity, the first saw IBM’s Deep Blue beat Garry Kasparov, the reigning World Chess Champion at the time, in a series of chess matches). Among these we may single out the fact that we humans seem ready to call machines smart and intelligent even though they may not necessarily think like us (humans can only see ‘ahead’ a handful of selected chess movements while chess programs perform an exhaustive search only bounded by time), despite seeming as clever as we are. This is already a vindication of Turing’s proposal for a test of intelligence.
Yet Chomsky’s opinion seems to point in the opposite direction, that we may still think we are much more special than Watson, and he might be in some sense right. We definitely play very differently than machines, but is chess that different from natural language? It may be, but this time the question may be whether what Watson does at playing is that different from what we do.
At the end of the Deep Blue vs. Garry Kasparov, Kasparov pointed out that he felt that the machine actually had a strategy and something that made him think that the machine was actually playing like a human, somehow perhaps even teasing him. Ken Jennings (one of the two human participants against Watson) wrote a day after the match: “This is all an instant, intuitive process for a human Jeopardy! player, but I felt convinced that under the hood my brain was doing more or less the same thing.”
Some people think that Watson has absolutely no ability to understand what it did, or any awareness about it, and that still makes the difference. This might be only partially true. Watson may not understand or be yet aware of its achievement, but I wonder if the same processes that made Watson to win this match are not the same that may be in action for even more sophisticated human thinking, such as self-awareness. But the question can also be reversed and one may also ask whether we are really aware of what happened, and how much of our feeling of being aware is the result of the type of thinking that Watson just exhibited.
As many of my readers certainly know, Alan Turing came up with a basic test suggesting that if something looked intelligent then it was intelligent. So we have reached the point at which not only has a machine passed the Turing test but also humanity may be ready to accept the idea behind the test, that is that it doesn’t really matter how something thinks if it looks clever enough to fool us (or even beat us at something) then it is intelligent. For the machine, the milestone is located at a point in time that reflects the current state of technology, which basically amounts to the miniaturization and mastery of computing devices, as well as the management of very large quantities of data, not forgetting the current state of fields involved (basically machine learning and natural language processing or NLP). But it is by no means an isolated achievement. I see IBM as the standard bearer for a combination of several current technologies run on the best hardware available today, a pioneer in this sense.
(Wolfram|Alpha computational engine control room.
Launch day picture by Hector Zenil)
It seems we are now able to gauge the size and power of the human brain as against something that looks as sophisticated as we are, at least at playing a sophisticated game. Watson and humans may reach the same conclusions, whether or not they do so in different ways, but the fact that Watson requires a computer the size of 10 full-size fridges, 15-terabyte of memory (likely full of data and programs) and 2,880 microprocessors working in parallel tells us more about us than about Watson itself. We knew we carried a supercomputer in each of our heads but we didn’t know what its specs may be. We also thought that the were specially gifted with unprecedented intelligence but now a machine that is certainly not aware of it and hasn’t taken the same path is also able to exhibits key features of intelligence.
Jen Kennings adds after the last match: “…But unlike us, Watson cannot be intimidated. It never gets cocky or discouraged. It plays its game coldly, implacably, always offering a perfectly timed buzz when it’s confident about an answer.” “…I was already thinking about a possible consolation prize: a second-place finish ahead of the show’s other human contestant and my quiz-show archrival, undefeated Jeopardy! phenom Brad Rutter.” Read more here and here.
Watson specs will fit in a small box in the future–given the trend of the past several decades following Moore’s law– and in the future as it is the case today, faster will be smarter.
Aired on PBS, NOVA called their documentary The Smartest Machine On Earth: